Thursday, February 23, 2006

Civil War In Iraq Not Likely

The destruction of the dome of the Golden Mosque Samarra, which I posted on yesterday, has convinced the MSM that Iraq is on the verge of a civil war.

Not so fast, says Bill Rogio:

By all indications, the situation in Iraq is tense, and the threat of continued violence is real. The possibility of a full-scale civil war is quite real as emotions are running high over the destruction of the revered Shiite shrine and the retaliation against Sunni mosques.

But the media has not asked or answered the following question: what exactly are the leading indicators for a full blown civil war - meaning the political leadership of the main Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties no longer wish cooperate, and an open and organized battle between the parties ensues?

After this intro, Bill offers a list containing the main lead indicators that a full scale civil War in Iraq is underway, and concludes that Iraq has not yet experienced any of the indicated symptoms of civil war.

He notes:

The Sunni led Iraqi Accordance Front has suspended talks to form a government, but have not withdrawn from the political process. The Iraqi Security Forces have taken appropriate measures and suspended all leaves, but there are no indications they are cooperating with militias or abetting the violence in any way.

So while the situation in Iraq remains tense, I would be very hesitant to subscribe to the rushed conclusions offered by the MSM.

Patience and cooperation by the Sunni and Shiite factions in Iraq will calm the unrest and solve the problem, allowing Iraq to regain its focus and get solidly back on track in its progress towards democracy.